By Lyson Sibande
At face value, it sounds crazy and thoughtless when Jessie Kabwila and others talk about the possibility of President Chakwera returning to State House in 2030.
But the only reason such talk seems absurd and rather insulting is that it is happening too soon when economic wounds that Chakwera inflicted on Malawians by his failed leadership are still fresh and bleeding. The prospect of having Chakwera again is traumatic and difficult for most Malawians to imagine.
However, former President Bakili Muluzi once observed that Malawians tend to forget very quickly; “a Malawi sachedwa kuyiwala” he declared. As a result, Malawian voters can be very unpredictable and unreliable. That is precisely why Mutharika is president again today with Ansah as his first vice president.
You will recall that between 2019 and 2020, Malawians rejected both Mutharika and Ansah. They disputed results of the presidential elections which were managed by Ansah, and Mutharika was declared winner. They took to the streets in massive demonstrations.
In 2020, Mutharika’s electoral victory was successfully challenged, making him the only president in Malawi’s history to have his election victory nullified by the High Court.
He lost the subsequent fresh presidential elections and Malawians celebrated his removal from power. At that time, few Malawians could have comfortably imagined that Mutharika would still be back at State House the following election.
However, we must understand that it was Chakwera himself who made Mutharika’s return to State House possible and easy in 2025, almost without Mutharika himself having to campaign for it.
Chakwera had failed so badly that out of protest and frustration, Malawians believed returning to Mutharika was better.
So, the first reason Chakwera could potentially return to State House, as unlikely as it may seem today, is that Mutharika could continue to perform so poorly that ordinary Malawians might eventually heal from the pain of Chakwera’s presidency and begin to forget just how badly his administration performed.
Secondly, it is important to understand that it was Mutharika, more than the DPP as a political party, who defeated Chakwera. Malawians voted for Mutharika’s return, not necessarily for the return of the DPP.
Without him, DPP could have hardly won the presidential election. But, Mutharika will not be on the ballot during the 2030 presidential election, meaning Chakwera could face a considerably weaker DPP candidate thereby increasing his chances of returning to power.
Therefore, if the DPP must successfully block the return of Chakwera in 2030, then they must fix the economy and outperform the MCP administration and also find a candidate of equal strength and appeal of Mutharika or someone better than him.
The question, therefore, is: Who, within the DPP, can currently match Mutharika’s political strength, popularity and electoral appeal? Is there such a candidate who would look more appealing and stronger than Chakwera on the ballot even as we agree that Chakwera failed?
I guess that time will tell, but until that question is convincingly answered, it would be premature to dismiss the possibility of the return of Chakwera.
It may sound far-fetched today, koma zindikirani kuti aMalawi sachedwa kuyiwala komanso ndi osapanganika.
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