By Lyson Sibande

Once again, Kabambe demonstrated his expertise during the interview by articulating the economic landscape of Malawi with clarity. He has a firm grasp of the fiscal and monetary errors that the current regime has made, and he understands the role of politics in creating the current economic mess.

Kabambe has shown that he possesses viable solutions and the capability to implement them. However, it is worth noting that Kabambe’s potential may be wasted within UTM. The UTM cannot win the upcoming election and might struggle to succeed in future elections. Therefore, Kabambe’s chances of becoming president will only be realistically addressed towards 2030.

You see, Kabambe has inherited the fate destined for UTM and its founder Chilima from the very inception of the movement in 2018.

To put this in context, let’s revisit the formation of UTM. Young man Chilima, transitioned from the corporate world to politics in 2013 when he was around 40years old. He joined the DPP and helped Mutharika win elections in 2014. But about 4 years later, Chilima resigned from the ruling DPP ahead of the 2019 elections following a battle over party leadership succession plan.

At that time, it was clear that only the DPP and MCP had a strong chance of winning the 2019 elections. Instead of joining MCP, Chilima opted to create a new political movement. He established a populist, youth-centric movement – UTM, a year before the elections, hoping that a populist and youths’ agenda would disrupt the stronghold of traditionally, tribally, and regionally established parties – DPP and MCP and lead to victory of his movement.

Chilima had copied the strategy of Emmanuel Macron, the young President of France who, at 39, became President in 2017. Macron, like Chilima, resigned from the private sector and joined one of the two major parties of France, the Socialist Party. He helped François Hollande in 2012 to win elections. When Hollande became President, Macron eventually became the Minister of Economics. But when the Socialist Party began to lose popularity towards the 2017 elections, Macron resigned.

Upon resignation from the ruling party, Macron formed a populist movement- En Marche, instead of joining already strongly established parties. His populist youth-centric movement broke record making it the first-time a movement dislodged established political parties and won elections. Macron became the youngest ruler of France in over 200 years, and his re-election in 2022 made him the first president to secure a second term in 20 years.

But while this strategy of populist and youth centric movement worked in France, its adaptation by Chilima failed in Malawi. The reason is that relying on populism and youth-centric approaches to challenge entrenched, tribal, and regional political parties is ineffective in Malawi. Such strategies can succeed in Europe and the USA but can hardly work in Africa due to our nascent democracies and the predominance of tribal loyalty over rational voting.

In Malawi, despite the large youth population, many young people do not participate in voting. Those born during the democratization era – The Gen Z, often show little interest in politics, prioritizing entertainment, sports, and social activities over national issues. For many youths, political events, such as candle-lighting memorial services, are seen more as entertaining social gatherings than serious political engagements.

This lack of rational voter engagement among the youth explains Chilima’s failure, and Kabambe’s reliance on a similar strategy may face the same obstacles. The increasing youth population in Malawi does not necessarily translate into a higher number of politically active, rational voters. The Youths, don’t really vote. They cant be trusted.